The World Financial Report

World Financial Report – April 12th, 2018

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WORLD FINANCIAL REPORT ON RADIO APRIL 12TH 2018
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CHARTS OF THE WEEK-QUOTES-QUICK HITS

-CHART OF THE WEEK: Global Debt Jumped to Record $237 Trillion Last Year. Norway, Canada, Sweden, China exceed pre-crisis debt levels. Global debt rose to a record $237 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2017, more than $70 trillion higher from a decade earlier, according to an analysis by the Institute of International Finance. Among mature markets, household debt as a percentage of GDP hit all-time highs in Belgium, Canada, France, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland.

That’s a worrying signal, with interest rates beginning to rise globally. Ireland and Italy are the only major countries where household debt as a percentage of GDP is below 50 percent. Still, the ratio of global debt-to-gross domestic product fell for the fifth consecutive quarter as the world’s economic growth accelerated. The ratio is now around 317.8 percent of GDP, or 4 percentage points below the high in the third quarter of 2016, according to the IIF. Among emerging markets, household debt to GDP is approaching parity in South Korea at 94.6 percent. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2qms9EQ

-CHART OF THE WEEK: Bond Traders Are About to Grasp the Magnitude of the Treasuries Deluge. The world’s biggest bond market has managed to gulp down a swelling deluge of issuance in recent months. But this week could drive home that an even bigger wave is ahead. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office on Monday is set to release its latest projection for the U.S. budget deficit. In June, before the tax overhaul and Congress’s decision to ramp up spending over the next two years, the estimate was for a $563 billion shortfall in fiscal 2018, rising to $689 billion the following year. Both of those figures are expected to climb, which would put the onus on the Treasury Department to bridge the shortfall with more borrowing. Of course, the trajectory of the national debt is already plenty clear it’s tripled in the past decade. And that phenomenon will play out again this week when the U.S. issues a combined $64 billion in three, 10 and 30-year obligations, up $8 billion from January. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2v6wdyu

-CHART OF THE WEEK: Crash Course in Market Timing Shows Cost of Being Wrong at Tops. It’s the eternal debate. Stocks are teetering. Volatility’s back. Do you ride it out, or take the money and run? The question is obvious, the answer is not. Like now. Is it the end? Facebook and Amazon are in free fall, the yield curve is flat and the Federal Reserve is bent on raising rates. But profits are rising, the economy’s up and companies plan billions of dollars in buybacks. Behind it all are facts of investing known well by anyone who sold after Brexit, the U.S. election, or five market corrections since 2009 that look just like this. One, it’s hard to see the end of things. Two, a lot of money is made at the top. Three, you miss any payoff in equities right now at grave risk to your career.

“It can be 6 or 8 percent costly, or even 10 percent costly” if you bail too soon, said John Augustine, chief investment officer for Huntington Private Bank in Columbus, Ohio, in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “That can mean a lot to folks in a 2 percent nominal world.” It can actually mean more. A study by Bank of America Corp. on market peaks since 1937 shows that being uninvested in the last year of an advance meant foregoing one-fifth of the rally’s overall return. While every episode is different, that math translates into additional 470 points in the S&P 500, if the bull market goes on for another year. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2EDNmiF

-CHART OF THE WEEK: Wild Ride Is the New Normal for U.S. Stocks. Market swings have surged this year. The S&P 500 has moved at least 1 percent 26 times already, triple the 2017 total. The Nasdaq 100 capped its ninth straight day with a move that size, the longest stretch since the depth of the financial crisis. And then there’s the intraday reversals: Stocks roared back from a 1.5 percent plunge at the open Wednesday to close higher, marking the sixth reversal of at least 1 percent since January equal to the total of the past two years. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2EHIZ6g

-CHART OF THE WEEK: Here Are Some Key S&P 500 Levels to Watch as the Market Fluctuates. The S&P 500 Index was trading at session highs Wednesday afternoon after reversing a loss of as much as 1.6 percent, a choppy pattern that has become a familiar characteristic lately. The index has been marked by moves of at least 1.3 percent in both directions in just the past three days. The tumult has been enough to cause seasickness in Wall Street chart-watchers. Here are some of the key levels they’re paying special attention to now: To Matt Maley, a strategist at Miller Tabak, the most important short-term levels to watch are 2,581 and 2,532. The S&P 500 closed at 2,581 on Feb. 8 and reached an intraday low of 2,532.69 the next day. “Any meaningful close below 2,581, especially if it closes below 2,532, will be quite negative on a very-near-term basis,” Maley said in a research note. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2HiL6m4

-CHART OF THE WEEK: Bitcoin, the Biggest Bubble in History, Is Popping. The greatest bubble in history is popping, according to Bank of America Corp. The cryptocurrency is tracking the downfalls of the other massive asset-price bubbles in history less than one year out from its record, analysts lead by Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note Sunday. The cryptocurrency has fallen more than 65 percent since peaking in December at $19,511. Bitcoin rose 2.2 percent to $6,750 on Monday. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2qnEp81

-CHART OF THE WEEK: American Road Trips Will Cost 14 Percent More This Summer. It’s going to cost Americans more to take road trips this summer. Gasoline prices will average $2.74 a gallon from April to September, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its Summer Fuel Outlook. The 14 percent boost to pump prices from last year comes as Brent crude oil has risen $12 a barrel from last year’s level. Higher prices may not deter drivers from hitting the road. The government agency sees a 0.2 percent rise in consumption from the previous year with highway travel seen rising 1.3 percent from last summer. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2HqsrlU

-CHART OF THE WEEK: Canopy Tops BCE, Manulife as Marijuana Stock Trading Ramps Up. Canadian pot stocks, most with little or no revenue, are quickly becoming among the most actively traded stocks on the country’s exchanges, topping blue-chip companies like BCE Inc. and Manulife Financial Corp. Canopy Growth Corp. and Aurora Cannabis Inc. were the fourth and fifth most-traded stocks by value on the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the past three months, with only the three biggest banks posting higher dollar volume.

The two pot stocks alone combined for more than C$500 million ($394 million) a day in trading activity, providing a boost to the exchanges and to the banks that are ramping up lending and support to the nascent industry as legalization approaches this year. While the bulk of trading is done by individual investors tracking last year’s surge and this year’s decline, the heavy volume suggests institutional money is starting to take note of the fledgling sector that some analysts say could be worth as much as C$12 billion a year in sales. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2GP2vUf

-We believe that 2018 will mark a significant turn in the financial markets, which will be adverse for conventional, consensus-based investment strategies and quite positive for gold and other safe-haven assets. It is quite likely, in our view, that a new up-cycle for gold could register new highs for the metal price (up at least 50%) and gains of 100% or more for many precious-metals mining shares. In a financial world that has been notable for disruptive change, there remains one constant: human nature and the resulting inevitable ebb and flow of greed and fear. Gold, a proven antidote to systemic risk, is in our view likely to return to favor. John Hathaway Senior Portfolio Manager Tocqueville Asset Management

-With all of this volatility going on, gold prices have not moved much. They are still stuck in the $1,300 to $1,350 (per ounce) range. Even on Friday, with all the volatility, gold only moved up a couple of bucks. That is the indicator to watch, and here is our forecast. Gold has to break above $1,385 per ounce. It has been unable to get near there. The next big number will be $1,450. When it solidifies over that, we forecast a jump to the $2,000 range. Gold is the ultimate safe haven asset. It has not been acting like that during this market shift.” Gerald Celente

-Top 20% of Americans Will Pay 87% of Income Tax. Households with $150,000 or more in income make up 52% of total income nationally but pay large portion of total taxes. WSJ

-If you invested in Facebook in 2012, when it made its initial public offering, that investment would have seen an increase, too. A $1,000 investment six years ago would be worth more than $4,300 as of Wednesday, according to CNBC calculations. CNBC

-The median sale price of a house in San Francisco soared to $1.6 million in the first quarter, an almost 24 percent jump from a year earlier, according to a new report from Paragon Real Estate Group. That topped the previous high in the final three months of last year by $100,000. Bloomberg

-From what we understand, the Chinese government has halted its purchases of US Treasuries. Despite the direct encouragement, according to Chinese sources, by US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin for China to “stay put,” Beijing has apparently discontinued purchases of US Treasuries “for the past few weeks.” Zerohedge.com

-Canada is the second worst-performing stock market in the developed world this year after Switzerland, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s down 5.8 percent versus a decline of less than 1 percent for the S&P 500 Index. Bloomberg

-The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,084,000, a 16.1 per cent increase over March 2017 and a 1.1 per cent increase since February of this year. Phil Moore, real estate board president, says even with lower sales, prices will remain high as long as the selection of properties is slim. BNN

-Finding a condo to rent in Toronto is tough enough paying for it has just gotten a lot harder. Average monthly rents in Canada’s biggest city surged 10.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier to C$2,206 ($1,751), according to Urbanation Inc. That’s the second-biggest increase since the firm started tracking the data in 2010, surpassed only by the 11.5 percent jump in the third quarter of last year. Part of the reason is simple supply and demand: Workers are flowing to Toronto for its booming tech and financial-services industries and competing for a scarcity of available units.

At the same time, stricter mortgage-lending regulations and escalating condo prices are pushing potential buyers out of the purchase market and into rentals. The average annual income required to buy an average-priced resale condo in the Toronto region is now C$100,000, up from C$77,000 a year earlier, according to Urbanation. The number of units rented in the quarter fell 12 percent from a year earlier due to the low supply, the firm said, with newly completed condos available to rent out dropping to 1,945, the lowest level in more than eight years. Bloomberg

-Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated pledges to open sectors from banking to auto manufacturing in a speech that also warned against returning to a “Cold War mentality” amid trade disputes with U.S. counterpart Donald Trump. Xi pledged a “new phase of opening up” in his keynote address Tuesday to the Boao Forum for Asia, China’s answer to Davos. While the speech offered little new policy, Xi affirmed or expanded on proposals to increase imports, lower foreign-ownership limits on manufacturing and expand protection to intellectual property all central issues in Trump’s trade gripes. Bloomberg

-China is evaluating the potential impact of a gradual yuan depreciation, people familiar with the matter said, as the country’s leaders weigh their options in a trade spat with U.S. President Donald Trump that has roiled financial markets worldwide. Senior Chinese officials are studying a two-pronged analysis of the yuan that was prepared by the government, the people said. One part looks at the effect of using the currency as a tool in trade negotiations with the U.S., while a second part examines what would happen if China devalues the yuan to offset the impact of any trade deal that curbs exports. The analysis doesn’t mean officials will carry out a devaluation, which would require approval from top leaders, the people said, asking not to be named as the information is private. “It seems as if Beijing is showing the full extent of policies they could deploy,” said Viraj Patel, a strategist at ING Bank NV in London. Bloomberg

-Chinese investment in the United States plummeted in 2017. And that was before a trade fight erupted between the two countries. For years, Chinese entities have pumped a significant amount of money into the US, deepening ties between the world’s two largest economies. But such investment fell from $46.5 billion in 2016 to $29.7 billion in 2017, according to a report released Tuesday by the Rhodium Group and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. That’s a drop of more than one third, though 2017 was still the second highest year on record. CNNMoney

-President Donald Trump described the FBI raid on the office of his personal attorney yesterday as a “disgraceful situation,” adding that he sees it as an “attack on our country.” The comments reflect Trump’s continuing frustration at Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe that has reached far into the president’s inner circle. Speculation is mounting that he may now undertake a purge of law enforcement officials, a move which would draw bipartisan condemnation. Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia wants to get oil prices near $80 a barrel to pay for the government’s crowded policy agenda and support the valuation of state energy giant Aramco before an initial public offering. In conversations with OPEC delegates and oil market participants, Saudi officials had been careful to avoid pinpointing an exact price target. Yet people who have spoken to them said the inescapable conclusion from the conversations was that Riyadh is aiming for $80.

The private discussions, relayed by several people who met the Saudis over the last month and asked not to be named to protect their relationship with the kingdom, chimes with the hawkish tone in public from Saudi officials. In an interview with Time magazine last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made the first public statement linking his expectation of higher oil prices with the timing of the initial public offering of Saudi Aramco. “We believe oil prices will get higher in this year and also get higher in 2019, so we are trying to pick the right time,” he told the magazine in reference to the IPO. Riyadh, which initially targeted the second half of 2018 for the listing, is now aiming for next year. Bloomberg

-Canadian builders continued their elevated pace of construction in March, with developers producing another stronger-than-expected result. Builders began work on an annualized 225,213 units during the month, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Tuesday in Ottawa. Construction has averaged 226,842 units since October, the highest six-month average in a decade. It’s a jump in construction that has surprised policy makers and analysts, giving a boost to the economy and a vote of confidence in a real estate market coping with tougher regulations.

Sales have slowed in recent months after various levels of government took measures to curb surging prices in places like Toronto and Vancouver. “Robust residential construction activity continues, led by the major markets,” Robert Kavcic, senior economist in Toronto at BMO Capital Markets, wrote Tuesday in a note to clients. “The correction we’re seeing Toronto now and Vancouver recently still remains largely an asset price phenomenon at the higher end of the market, with underlying demographic demand still strong.” Housing starts declined 2.5 percent in March from 231,026 units in February, which was one of the strongest months in the past decade. Bloomberg

-Financial stress in the retail industry is at a historic high. Moody’s said in a report on Tuesday that retail sector defaults hit a record high during the first three months of 2018 as the rise of e-commerce and decline of malls continues to eat away at profits. Struggling Sears and bankrupt Claire’s are among the nine retailers that defaulted on their debt during the first quarter despite the healthy overall economy. All but one of the retailers are based in the United States.

Retailers accounted for one-third of all corporate defaults this year, underscoring the pain this pocket of business feels as customers flock to Amazon (AMZN) and other online shopping hubs. “Stresses in the retail sector have weighed on the operating earnings of department stores, discount stores and drug stores in particular,” Sharon Ou, a Moody’s senior credit officer, said in the report. Moody’s cited the “fallout of changing consumer behavior and advancing e-commerce for traditional brick-and-mortar retail.” Four retailers defaulted during February and another four defaulted in March tied for the most in a single month since December 1998. And that’s on top of the 13 retail defaults in 2017, including one by bankrupt Toys “R” US according to Moody’s. Bloomberg

-Nine West Holdings, which owns the Nine West and Anne Klein brands, has filed for bankruptcy. Friday’s chapter 11 filing shows that the company owes more than $1 billion. Nine West said in a statement that it plans to sell Nine West and its Bandolino line to Authentic Brands Group. ABG owns Juicy Couture and Aéropostale, among others. The company’s eponymous brand and Bandolino both sell women’s shoes, handbags and accessories. Ralph Schipani, the struggling retailer’s CEO, said that the restructuring will help the company reduce debt and increase growth by allowing it to focus on its stronger brands, like Anne Klein and One Jeanswear Group. CNNMoney

-Interest rates are on their way up. Buoyed by a strengthening economy and increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will reach its inflation target in the near future, central bank policymakers suggested the path of future rate hikes could be “slightly steeper” over the next few years than previously thought, according to minutes of their March meeting released on Wednesday. “Members agreed that the strengthening in the economic outlook in recent months increased the likelihood that a gradual upward trajectory of the federal funds rate would be appropriate,” according to the minutes. In March, the Fed lifted the federal funds rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.

That was an increase of a quarter of a percentage point. The Fed’s target rate helps determine rates for mortgages, credit cards and other borrowing. According to the minutes, there was some debate by policymakers on whether to delay raising rates to a later meeting to send a strong signal to investors that monetary policy decisions would be based on incoming economic data. But they ultimately agreed to press ahead. It was the sixth increase since December 2015, when the Fed started tightening monetary policy for the first time after the financial crisis. Rates are still extremely low by historical standards. Fed officials were split on whether last month’s policy meeting was the appropriate time to announce a fourth rate hike in 2018. The Fed has signaled it would raise rates three times this year. CNNMoney

-America added 103,000 jobs in March, slower than previous months and well below expectations. Economists had predicted 185,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, the lowest since 2000. It has come down steadily from a peak of 10% in 2009. Wages grew 2.7% in March compared with a year ago, in line with expectations. Wage growth is one of the few yardsticks in the job market not to pick up meaningfully in recent years. Job gains for January and February were revised down by a total of 50,000 jobs. The job figures come as concern grows about a trade war between the United States and China. President Trump said Thursday he is considering hitting China with tariffs on $100 billion more of its goods, for a total of $150 billion. CNNMoney

-President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy means the dollar will have to weaken, according to Deutsche Bank AG. The administration’s “irreconcilable” goals of cutting trade imbalances while funding a large fiscal stimulus program pose the biggest challenge to the international monetary system since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement in the 1970s, George Saravelos, global co-head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note. The only way to resolve these conflicting objectives is via a weaker dollar, he said. That’s because the U.S. will probably struggle to attract sufficient foreign capital to fund its twin deficits, and that lack of appetite will likely translate to more currency weakness, he said. Bloomberg

-One of the most outspoken proponents of Bitcoin Cash, the digital token that spun off from Bitcoin in August amid a heated debate in the digital-money community, still holds some of the original cryptocurrency because, well, everyone knows it’s smart to diversify. Roger Ver, an early Bitcoin evangelist whose work earned him the nickname Bitcoin Jesus. “Like any smart investor, I don’t put all of my eggs in one basket,” Ver, who owns Bitcoin.com, said, in an interview from the Bloomberg Invest Asia Conference in Hong Kong. “So I still do own some Bitcoin core, but the vast majority I have converted into Bitcoin Cash.” Still, he reaffirmed his commitment to the spun-off coin: “I’m more bullish about Bitcoin Cash than I have been about Bitcoin core before it split,” Ver said. “It’s actually getting adoption all around the world, more and more merchants are accepting it, it’s easier to use.” Bloomberg

-Is the rise of Bitcoin analogous to the spread of an infectious disease? Analysts at Barclays Plc saw enough similarities to develop a pricing model for the cryptocurrency that takes its cues from the world of epidemiology. Their diagnosis: Bitcoin has probably peaked. The Barclays model divides the pool of potential Bitcoin investors into three groups: susceptible, infected and immune. It assumes that as prices rise, “infections” spread by word-of-mouth (nobody likes missing out when their friends and colleagues are getting rich). Barclays analysts led by Joseph Abate in New York explained the rest in a note to clients on Tuesday. Bloomberg

-The U.S. has confirmed that Kim Jong Un is willing to talk to President Donald Trump about getting rid of his nuclear weapons, as South Korea claimed when it passed along the North Korean leader’s offer for a historic meeting, according to an administration official. Whether or not Kim had genuinely offered to discuss dismantling his nuclear program was a key question surrounding his offer to meet Trump, made in March and conveyed to the U.S. via a South Korean envoy. The U.S. president accepted Kim’s offer before the U.S. could confirm the North’s offer was genuine, and a meeting between the two was promised by the end of May. The administration official asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. But the fact that the U.S. has confirmed North Korea’s willingness to even discuss denuclearization is a positive step toward the Trump-Kim meeting actually taking place, and suggests they are communicating directly in preparation for it. Bloomberg

-President Donald Trump is still weighing options for U.S. military action against Syria and will meet with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Wednesday, after warning Russia on Twitter to expect a missile barrage. Trump has not yet settled on a plan to retaliate against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for an alleged chemical weapons attack last weekend outside Damascus, and a U.S. strike isn’t expected today, two people familiar with the matter said. Trump said earlier on Twitter that relations with Russia, Assad’s patron, have never been worse and warned Moscow to “get ready” for a U.S. missile strike on Syria. “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and ‘smart!,'” Trump wrote. “You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!” Trump’s remarks weighed on investors already concerned about war. Oil prices surged to the highest level in more than three years in New York. Bloomberg

-New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport is no longer ranked among the 20 busiest in the world, thanks to the rush in Asia. Among those pushing out JFK was New Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport, which made its debut on the table last year at No. 16, according to Airports Council International rankings released Monday. The Indian airfield was also the fastest-growing on the list, with passenger traffic rising 14 percent, followed by 10 percent at China’s Guangzhou, which climbed two notches to No. 13. The center of gravity for world aviation is continuing its eastward shift, with China and India poised to feature among the world’s top three air-travel markets by 2020 as rising incomes make fares more affordable, Montreal-based ACI said. The Asia Pacific region is likely to have 3.5 billion passengers by 2036, adding more than double the forecast for North America and Europe combined, according to estimates by the International Air Transport Association. Bloomberg

Facebook Inc. lost ground to Google in January as users spent more time on YouTube and other Alphabet Inc. properties, according to a report. Brian Wieser, a Pivotal Research analyst who reviewed Nielsen digital consumption data, said Google properties, including YouTube and Waze, combined to account for 27.4 percent of all time spent on digital media up 3 percentage points from the previous year. By contrast, Facebook’s share of time spent fell about 2 points to 16.3 percent over the same period. Facebook depends on people coming back frequently so it can collect data and use it to target ads at them. The company said in the fourth quarter that people were spending less time on the site after Facebook began shifting users’ news feeds back toward posts from friends and family and away from businesses and media outlets. But if the trend continues, investors could take it as a sign that users are losing interest in Facebook. Bloomberg

-The richest zip code in America is just as exclusive and elite as the people who live there. Fisher Island, located just off the coast of Miami, is accessible only by ferry or water taxi and is a haven for the world’s richest. The 216-acre island has diverse residents, representing over 50 nationalities and professions ranging from professional athletes and supermodels to executives and lawyers. The average income in Fisher Island, zip code 33109, was $2.5 million in 2015, according to a Bloomberg analysis of 2015 Internal Revenue Service data.

That’s $1 million more than the second-place spot, held by zip code 94027 in Silicon Valley, also known as the City of Atherton on the San Francisco Peninsula. The area’s neighbors include Stanford University and Menlo Park, home to Facebook and various tech companies. While the IRS data only provide the averages of tax returns, which can be skewed by outliers, Fisher Island is the only zip code in the Bloomberg analysis where more than half of all tax returns showed an income of over $200,000. To no one’s surprise, neighborhoods in California and the New York tri-state area comprise a majority of the top 20 richest U.S. zip codes. States with favorable tax structures like Florida and Wyoming are drawing the wealthy, too. Bloomberg

-Actor Daniel Craig’s 2014 Aston Martin and singer-songwriter Carole King’s 1924 model ‘M’ Steinway piano are being auctioned later this month at Christie’s. Craig’s midnight blue Centenary Edition Vanquish, numbered 007, has a top speed of 183 mph and is expected to fetch $400,000 to $600,000 at the April 20 Exceptional Sale in New York, Christie’s said Tuesday in an emailed statement. The Steinway featured on the cover of King’s 1970s album “Music” and the single “Sweet Seasons” is estimated at $40,000 to $60,000, according to the auction house. The sale of the car will benefit Opportunity Network, a New York-based nonprofit that works with high-achieving students starting in 10th grade to help them attend college and begin careers. The car got an auction preview Monday outside 55 Wall St. for Opportunity Network’s gala, along with an appearance by Craig, who starred in James Bond films.

Guggenheim investment chief sees a recession and a 40% plunge in stocks ahead. Guggenheim’s head of investing sees a tough road ahead for the market and economy, with a sharp recession and a 40 percent decline in stocks looming. Scott Minerd, who warned clients in a recent note that the market is on a “collision course with disaster,” expects the worst of the damage to start in late 2019 and into 2020. Along with the decline in equities, a rise in corporate bond defaults is likely as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and companies struggle to pay off record debt levels. “For the next year equities will probably continue to go up as we have all these stock buybacks and free cash flow,” Minerd told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan in a “Worldwide Exchange” interview. “Ultimately, when the chickens come home to roost and we have a recession, we’re going to see a lot of pressure on equities especially as defaults rise, and I think once we reach a peak that we’ll probably see a 40 percent retracement in equities.” Read more here-https://cnb.cx/2v3qVnr

U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates, CBO Says. The U.S. budget deficit will surpass $1 trillion by 2020, two years sooner than previously estimated, as tax cuts and spending increases signed by President Donald Trump do little to boost long-term economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Spending will exceed revenue by $804 billion in the fiscal year through September, jumping from a projected $563 billion shortfall forecast in June, the non-partisan arm of Congress said in a report Monday.

In fiscal 2019, the deficit will reach $981 billion, compared with an earlier projection of $689 billion. The nation’s budget gap was only set to surpass the trillion-dollar level in fiscal 2022 under CBO’s report last June. Deficits are growing as the Trump administration enacted a tax overhaul this year that will lower federal revenue and Congress approved a roughly $300 billion spending increase. The fresh CBO estimates could heighten investor worries as they weigh the potential impact that tariff threats between the U.S. and China may have on the world economy. The report includes new projections for the effects of the tax legislation saying it will increase the deficit by almost $1.9 trillion over the next 11 years, when accounting for its macroeconomic effects and increased debt-service costs.

In December, Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation had said the tax package would reduce federal revenue by almost $1.1 trillion over a 10-year period. “Today’s CBO report confirms that major damage was done to our fiscal outlook in just the past few months,” Michael Peterson, who heads the budget watchdog Peterson Foundation, said in a statement. “This is the first forecast to take into account the recent tax and spending legislation, and it’s clear that lawmakers have added significantly more debt on top of an already unsustainable trajectory.” Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2qkZsrK and https://cnnmon.ie/2HoVPsO

-Don’t Be So Downbeat on Loonie, Top Currency Forecaster Says. The outlook for the Canadian dollar has become far too gloomy, according to the currency’s top forecaster. Lloyds Banking Group Plc expects the loonie to bounce after posting its worst start to the year against the U.S. dollar relative to its peers as pessimism lifts over the North American Free Trade Agreement and expectations for rate hikes from the Bank of Canada begin to creep back into the market. “We’re seeing some progress on the Nafta front,” said Gajan Mahadevan, a London-based strategist at the bank.

“The risk to the Bank of Canada outlook is now probably skewed to the upside, especially after the recent jump in inflation.” The loonie fell 2.6 percent against the greenback in the first quarter, lagging 15 other major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, and traded around C$1.273 per U.S. dollar at 10:35 a.m. in Toronto. It will advance 2.6 percent to C$1.24 by the end of this year and to C$1.20 in 2019, according to Lloyds. The currency has been under pressure this year as the economy slowed and investors cut bets for interest-rate increases. Concerns that negotiations to overhaul Nafta would fall apart have also weighed on the currency, though as of last week, Lloyds’s optimism was looking well placed. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2EBCjGy

-Many Toronto condo investors struggling to cover costs and it’s going to get worse. Investors accounted for almost half of the buyers who took possession of newly-constructed condos in the Greater Toronto Area last year, but it may become more difficult for them to cover their expenses with rent in the next few years, according to a new report. The report, written by CIBC Capital Markets Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal and Urbanation Senior VP Shaun Hildebrand, comes amid growing demand and rising prices for condos in the Toronto area. Average resale condo prices rose 26 per cent in 2017, while rent prices climbed nine per cent, making condos an appealing option for people looking to collect rental income.

But Tal and Hildebrand predict by 2021, increased supply and a changing economic environment could make it more difficult for investors to keep up with their expenses by renting out their units. Condo investors accounted for at least 48 per cent of buyers who took possession of a new condo in 2017, according to the report, while just over 20 per cent of those investors bought the unit with no mortgage. It also found the investors are generally between the ages of 40 and 60, and typically invest in condos as part of their retirement strategy, or as a way to help their children break into the market.

But the report found at least 44 per cent of investors with a mortgage are currently in a negative cash flow position relative to the amount they collect in rental income. Among those in a negative position, 34.5 per cent of investors’ rental income falls short in their payments by $1,000 each month, while a further 20.1 per cent are short between $500 and $1,000 a month. At the same time, investors experienced “exceptional returns” on property value between the time they agreed to buy the units and the time they took possession.

The report found, on average, the value of units rose 51 per cent over a five-year waiting period. As an example, investors who made a 20-per-cent down payment about $75,000 earned a 155-per-cent return before closing costs. However, the authors estimate that for new units that were pre-sold over the past year, and are tentatively scheduled for completion in 2021, rent would need to rise by 17 per cent over the next four years if there’s no change in mortgage rates in order to cover carry costs with a 20 per cent down payment. That number increases to 28 per cent if interest rates increase by 100 basis points and by 39 per cent if rates rise by 200 basis points. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2qmhUQQ

-Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose. Typical U.S. homeowners are gaining more than $50 of equity in their homes during every eight-hour workday, according to an analysis from Zillow. Price gains in some parts of the country have been significantly higher. In booming tech cities San Jose, San Francisco and Seattle, appreciation of the typical home added the equivalent in wealth of a six-figure annual salary. Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas said, “For homeowners that have already or are very close to paying off a mortgage, this supplemental ‘income’ especially if allowed to accumulate over several years can essentially serve as a kind of second job that pays directly to a homeowner’s bottom line, without nearly as much actual work involved in collecting it.” Read more here-

-Greg Hunter: Bill Holter Interview, It’s Pure Math We’re Headed for a Train Wreck. Financial writer and gold expert Bill Holter says China has a lot of weapons to fight a trade war with the U.S. China could stop buying Treasury bonds (as it reportedly already has done). It could sell Treasury bonds. It could slash the value of the Yuan, or something much simpler could happen such as a failed delivery of physical precious metals. Holter says, “If what has happened so far in the first three months of the year were to continue for the full year, you would be over three billion ounces (of silver). That is not deliverable.”

What happen when the world figures out that three billion ounces of physical silver cannot and will not be delivered to the buyers? Holter explains, “That’s called an old fashion run on the banks. It will be a run on the entire system. You would have a run on every metals exchange, and you would probably have runs on many physical commodities. Confidence throughout the whole system would break. You would basically show the western fractional reserve system is a fraud and has been for many, many years. Can London deliver a billion ounces, or two billion ounces or three billion ounces of silver? The answer to that is no.” So, when does this all blow up? Holter says, “I think this whole thing has a very good chance of blowing this year.” Read and watch more here-http://bit.ly/2GWgwew and http://bit.ly/2qprH9o

-Warhol’s Elvis portrait could fetch $30 million at Christie’s sale. Andy Warhol’s full-length portrait of Elvis Presley, “Double Elvis (Ferus Type),” is projected to sell at around $30 million. The pop artist’s only full-length portrait is being auctioned by Christie’s in New York on May 17. Read more here-https://cnb.cx/2qpXaaY

-Switzerland’s 10-franc bill was named best banknote of 2017, edging out money from Scotland, Canada, Fiji, Norway and Djibouti to give the Swiss National Bank its second consecutive win. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2v82WTZ

-Russell Crowe’s ‘divorce’ auction fetches millions for actor. Gladiator star tweeted about new earnings: ‘not a bad hourly rate for a 5 hour shift.’ The auction, titled “The Art of Divorce,” took place on the actor’s 54th birthday and the anniversary of his wedding to singer Danielle Spencer in 2003. The sale, which took place on Saturday, raised $3.7 million, with armour from Gladiator being sold for $125,000, the film’s Roman chariot replica going for $65,000, and a jockstrap he wore in 2005 drama Cinderella Man fetching $7,000. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2IFosl1 and https://dailym.ai/2HoIG2U

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RARECOLOREDDIAMONDS.COM

-102-Carat Diamond Sale Brings Focus To Sotheby’s Geneva Upcoming Jewelry Auction. It’s still a month away but early indications are showing that Sotheby’s Geneva Magnificent Jewels and Noble Jewels sale on May 15 is going to be a sparking event filled with statement diamonds. First up is a 6.16 blue diamond with 300 years of royal history: “The Farnese Blue.” Sotheby’s is calling it one of the most historic diamonds ever offered for a public sale. It also is the first time in the diamond’s 300-year history that it is appearing on a public market. Its estimate is $3.7 to $5.3 million.

The pear shaped blue diamond was first given to Elisabeth Farnese, Queen of Spain in 1715 and descendant of Pope Paul III, following her 1714 wedding to King Philip V of Spain, grandson of Louis XIV, King of France. It has since been passed through the royal families of Spain, France, Italy and Austria, the auction house said a witness to 300 years of European history, from the aftermath of the Spanish succession War to the fall of the Habsburg Empire. Throughout this time, it was secretly kept in a royal casket. Outside of close relatives and family jewelers, no one knew of its existence.

In addition, Sotheby’s says the gem originated from the historic Golconda diamond mines of India. “This stone has witnessed 300 years of European history, and in color is reminiscent of historic Golconda blue gems such as the Hope diamond,” said David Bennett, chairman of Sotheby’s International Jewellery Division and co-chairman of Sotheby’s Switzerland, “With its incredible pedigree, the Farnese Blue ranks among the most important historic diamonds in the world,” added Philipp Herzog von Württemberg, chairman of Sotheby’s Europe and managing director of Germany. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2EEfWjM

-Rosy future: investing in pink diamonds. High in demand and low in supply, the pink stones can be worth more than 10 times the price of their colourless counterparts. Estimated to command more than 10 times the price of their colourless counterparts, pink diamonds are pretty, precious and highly priced, and this all comes down to one overarching feature: scarcity. “Even within the rarefied category of coloured diamonds, pink diamonds are extraordinarily rare,” says David Bennett, worldwide chairman of Sotheby’s international jewellery division. “To give you an idea, of all the diamonds submitted for testing at the Gemological Institute of America each year, fewer than 0.02 per cent are predominantly pink.

As such, the finest examples have achieved some of the highest prices in the jewellery category at auction.” Paul Zimnisky, an independent diamond analyst based in New York, adds: “If you are going to invest in a diamond, a nice pink is the way to go. The world’s primary source of pink diamonds, the Argyle mine in Australia, will be ceasing production by 2020 as its economic resource has been exhausted. This will keep supply limited and prices high.” Cases in point: the flawless fancy vivid Pink Star, which, at USD 71.2 million, became the most expensive diamond to ever sell at auction in April last year; the 46.2 million fancy intense Graff Pink described by jeweller Laurence Graff as the most fabulous diamond he has seen in his career; and the Fancy Light Pink by Harry Winston, which sold for 12.8 million. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2GOkav4

-Australia’s biggest diamond mine is running out of diamonds. Sometime in the next few years Argyle Diamonds, Australia’s biggest diamond mine and the source of rare and prized fancy pink gems, will come to the end of its life. The shutdown, and the loss of Argyle’s output of 14 million carats of diamonds a year, will cut world production by around 10% and is expected to create upward pressure on prices. Argyle has been in operation since 1983, first as an open pit and then from 2013 as an underground operation, producing more than 95% of Australia’s diamonds. At the end of 2017, the estimated ore reserve was 16 million tonnes, down from 29 million tonnes, a drop of 45% from a year earlier.

That translates to 38.5 million recoverable carats, at a grade of 2.4 carats per tonne of ore. At what point the mine becomes unprofitable depends on prices and costs. “Shut-off criteria will be reviewed regularly against price, cost performance and demonstrated operational performance,” says owner Rio Tinto in its latest report. “The remaining reserves underpin the operation until 2020.” The coming shutdown, and the subsequent impact on world supply and prices, hasn’t gone unnoticed. Many prospectors are looking for a new source. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2Eks758

-Flawless white diamonds, among largest ever offered, to go on sale. Two flawless white diamonds each weighing in at more than 50 carats are expected to fetch more than $15 million when they are auctioned in May, auctioneers Sotheby’s Diamonds said on Friday. The diamonds, a 51.71 carat round brilliant-cut gemstone and a 50.39 carat oval, are the second-largest of their respective kinds ever to come to auction, Sotheby’s said. The sale of the gemstones, discovered and purchased at tender in Botswana, comes after a 102 carat white diamond sold to an undisclosed buyer in February far exceeded the price paid per carat for any colourless diamond at auction, according to auctioneers, who did not reveal the price paid.

The record price previously paid was for a 118 carat diamond sold in Hong Kong in 2013, which fetched $260,000 a carat. Sotheby’s also said it was auctioning “The Farnese Blue,” a roughly 6 carat blue diamond given to the Queen of Spain, Elisabeth Farnese, in 1715, which auctioneers said had been passed down through four European royal families since then. All three of the diamonds are scheduled to be auctioned in Geneva in May. Read more here-https://reut.rs/2JB6UYJ

-$40 Million Rough Diamond On Display At Baselworld 2018. A rough diamond worth $40-million was on display at Baselworld last week by Taché, one of Antwerp’s largest diamond companies. The 910-carat D-color type IIa (very high clarity) diamond, called the Lesotho Legend, was recovered from the Letseng mine in Lesotho, Africa, and acquired by Taché for $40-million at a tender in Antwerp. As it is now, the Lesotho Legend doesn’t look like much; just a chunk of waxy ice roughly the size of a tennis ball, with black spots in the middle. But like an ugly duckling poised to become a beautiful swan or series of swans this $40-million piece of rough could yield several polished diamonds for a total retail value that could more than double that price. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2v6LW0j

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GOLD-SILVER

Gold to silver ratio at 80 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $25.00

Gold to silver ratio at 70 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $28.57

Gold to silver ratio at 60 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $33.33

Gold to silver ratio at 50 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $40.00

Gold to silver ratio at 40 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $50.00

Gold to silver ratio at 30 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $66.67

Gold to silver ratio at 20 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $100.00

Gold to silver ratio at 15 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $133.33

-That same question about JPMorgan or other commercials falsely inducing the managed money traders to load up on the short side of silver would elicit no similar doubts from me. I may not be able to tell you exactly how they did it (after all, I can’t see behind closed doors), but I do know that the prime beneficiaries of the extraordinarily large managed money short position are the commercials which have tried to buy every single managed money short contract sold.

Over the past month and months, no single commercial trader has bought more managed money short contracts than JPMorgan, making this crooked bank the prime beneficiary of the record managed money selling. While I can’t pinpoint what JPMorgan did to get the managed money traders to sell such large and unprecedented amounts of COMEX silver contracts, there is no way that the bank just happened to be in the right place at the right time. Things just don’t work like that in the real world.

What illegitimate role JPMorgan may have played in tricking the managed money traders to sell and sell short so heavily in COMEX silver may never be known, but that is very different from the fact that the managed money traders did sell and JPMorgan and other commercials bought. It’s what’s on the scoreboard that counts. And what’s on the scoreboard is not only the unprecedented large short position of the managed money traders, but the fact that the commercials rigged these traders into record short positions on such a shallow drop in price. Silver analyst Ted Butler April 7 2018 via Ed Steer edsteergoldandsilver.com subscribe here-http://bit.ly/1fdAByN

-Justin Spittler: Why This “Too Big to Fail” Bank Is Stockpiling Silver. JPMorgan is one of the world’s largest, most powerful, and most well-connected banks. It manages trillions of dollars. So it pays to watch what it’s doing. And last week, the giant bank received 597,000 ounces of silver. That’s about $10 million worth. After that giant purchase, JPMorgan now has 140 million ounces of silver sitting in its COMEX warehouse. That’s 54% of the silver supply monitored by the CME Group. That’s a huge deal. But you also need to realize something. That means it built this massive silver hoard in just eight years. But why? Well, I can’t say for certain. Only the top brass at JPMorgan knows the answer. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2EEIoC9

-Clive Maund: The Stunning Silver Setup. We now have the most bullish setup for silver that we have ever seen. After trading sideways / down for over 20 months now, investors have completely lost interest in it, which is of course the perfect breeding ground for a huge rally that seems to come out of nowhere. As we will proceed to see both COTs and the silver to gold ratio are at record extremes that point to a major bullmarket in silver starting imminently. We will begin by looking at the latest price charts for silver. The 6-month chart looks dead boring, which is of course why those who are habitually wrong are making the dangerous mistake of shorting it. If you can stay awake for long enough looking at it, you will observe a dreary neutral trend and somewhat bearishly aligned moving averages it certainly isn’t this chart that stirs our interest in silver. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2GRWYYT

-Adam Hamilton: New Silver Bull Coming. Silver has been dead money over the past year or so, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower. That weak price action has naturally left this classic alternative investment deeply out of favor. Silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold, while speculators’ silver-futures positions are extraordinarily bearish. All this has created the perfect breeding ground to birth a major new silver bull market, which could erupt anytime. Silver’s price behavior is unusual, making it a challenging investment psychologically. Most of the time silver is maddeningly boring, drifting listlessly for months or sometimes years on end. So the vast majority of investors abandon it and move on, which is exactly what’s happened since late 2016. There’s so little interest in silver these days that even traditional primary silver miners are actively diversifying into gold! Read more here-http://bit.ly/2GRJZ9r

-Mike Maloney: Insider’s Preview The 4 Biggest Signs For Silver. Watch more here-http://bit.ly/2qr14Ai

-David Morgan: Silver Market Set Up Is “Best I’ve Seen for a Very Long Time.” Read more here-http://bit.ly/2HdhBCl

-Ed Steer: Another superb COT report for silver. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2qoOxxl

-‘Nervous’ Investors Pile Into Gold ETFs. Anxious investors from Germany to China are seeking shelter in gold ETFs. Holdings in all bullion-backed exchange-traded funds tracked by Bloomberg extended their ascent to the highest since 2013, rising for a fourth straight session in the longest run since January. Xetra-Gold, the third-largest commodity-linked ETF, had almost 177 million shares outstanding as of Monday, the most since the Frankfurt-listed fund started trading in 2007. While equities rebounded Tuesday after Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a conciliatory tone in remarks on trade disputes with the U.S., geopolitical angst is driving demand for gold as a haven.

U.S. sanctions against Russian oligarchs may elicit a “harsh response” from the Kremlin, and Middle East tensions mounted after a suspected chemical-weapons attack in Syria. “We’ve seen volatility risk in the stock market, and geopolitical risk concerning the situation in Russia and the Middle East,” said Michael Blumenroth, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG who writes a weekly market report published on Xetra Gold’s website. “People have become nervous in Germany so they were buying gold.” German investors aren’t alone. China’s Bosera Gold ETF has attracted $610.8 million this year, putting it on course for the biggest annual inflow since it was listed in Shenzhen in 2014. New York-listed iShares Gold Trust has attracted $1.49 billion in 2018, the biggest inflow of all commodity ETFs. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2qntGv2 and https://bloom.bg/2EEZAY3

-Gold Price Seen ‘Moving North’ as World Fails to Replace Output. Bullion prices are set to climb because there’s been a lack of exploration and the global industry isn’t replacing the reserves it’s been mining, according to Stephen Letwin, chief executive officer at Iamgold Corp. “Gold has a much higher probability of moving north as opposed to south,” Letwin said in an interview at a mining conference in Hong Kong on Thursday. “I’ve been around a long time; when you’re in an industry that’s not replacing what it produces, eventually, the price has to move up.”

The producer-funded World Gold Council has estimated that world supply may have peaked, while Frank Holmes, chief executive officer of U.S. Global Investors Inc., said this week that mine supply topped out in 2017 or will do so this year. Combined with understated inflation and strong demand from China and India, this could help boost prices to $1,500 an ounce by the end of the year from about $1,327 now, according to Holmes. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2v6KdYV

-Trump Trade Fears Take Gold and Palladium Futures on a Wild Ride. Donald Trump’s trade policies are breathing new life into precious metals. Measures of 60-day historical volatility for gold and palladium futures climbed to the highest in about a year. Volatility in silver also increased. Prices were whipsawed last week as Trump administration officials tried to calm markets, while their boss warned of short-lived “pain” from a trade stand-off with China. In Russia, the largest palladium producer, dozens of companies and key allies of President Vladimir Putin are facing a new wave of U.S. sanctions.

Gold futures have gained more than 2 percent this year as Trump’s policies, including recent announcements on import tariffs, spur concerns that a trade war may erupt between China and the U.S., derailing global economic growth. On Monday, Trump again lashed out at China, saying the relative size of tariffs placed on American cars sold in the Asian nation “sounds like STUPID TRADE.” “Volatility has spiked all over the place,” Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities, said in a telephone interview. Investors are pricing in a risk premium amid the uncertainty from Trump’s policies, he said.

United Co. Rusal, which controls about 28 percent of MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, was among the Russian companies included in the list that the U.S. hit with sanctions on Friday intended to punish the country for actions in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria, and for attempting to subvert Western democracies. Norilsk Nickel operates some of the richest mines in palladium, platinum, and nickel. “I think there’s an element” of uncertainty in the flow of supply that’s being factored in palladium prices, Melek said. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2GSiP2k

-Dubai Loses Glitter as VAT Tax Crimps Demand in City of Gold. Demand for gold jewelry in the United Arab Emirates plummeted in the first quarter, and traders say they know the culprit: the value-added tax. Wholesale gold jewelry sales in Dubai, sometimes known as the City of Gold, fell 50 to 60 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier after VAT began on Jan. 1, according to Chandu Siroya, vice chairman of the industry association Dubai Gold & Jewellery Group. Dubai’s historic souk marketplace of mostly jewelry traders even has space available for the first time in years, he said. Gold demand in the U.A.E. hasn’t recovered since the 2008 global financial crisis and dropped to a 20-year low in 2017, according to the World Gold Council.

The country, dominated by expats, sells most of its gold products to foreign jewelers, a proposition that became costly and cumbersome with the introduction of the tax this year. VAT is “dampening the market,” Siroya said at a gold conference in Dubai Monday. “Sales stalled and it will take time until people understand they will get a refund when they leave. Dubai isn’t a consumer market, it’s a global distribution center.” The new tax rebate process is marred by inefficiencies, he said, turning what was once a simple trip for an Indian trader to buy inventories from Dubai into a bureaucratic nightmare. Industry professionals are lobbying the government to streamline the rules to help revive sales, he said. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2HeJKbZ

-Gold Imports by India Are Said to Slump Before Key Day for Sales. Gold imports by India, the largest market after China, fell by almost half last month, according to a person familiar with the information, even as jewelers prepare for “decent” sales during an auspicious Hindu day. Shipments plunged 47 percent to 64.2 metric tons in March from 121 tons a year earlier, the person said, asking not to be identified as the figures aren’t public. Imports in the first three months totaled 159 tons, down 42 percent from a year ago, data collated by Bloomberg show.

Finance Ministry spokesman D.S. Malik didn’t answer a call to his mobile phone. Ample supply in domestic markets after huge inflows last year, and sluggish demand, helped spur the slide in imports in the first quarter. Rising global prices have also kept a lid on shipments before the auspicious gold buying day of Akshaya Tritiya in the Hindu calendar on April 18. “There isn’t that crazy, mad rush to purchase gold for Akshaya Tritiya as we have seen in the past, but we are expecting balanced and decent buying,” Saurabh Gadgil, chairman of PN Gadgil Jewellers Pvt. Ltd., said by phone from Pune. There’s been a regular flow of advance orders for the auspicious day, some helped by the bullish outlook for prices because of global uncertainties and U.S.-China trade tensions, he said.

Consumption of gold has been declining in the country as a slowdown in the economy led people to hold back spending, Gadgil said. Demand has been hit in Asia’s third-largest economy by the cash ban in 2016 and the chaotic implementation of the goods and services tax last year. While there are some signs demand is recovering, it’s not enough to fuel widespread optimism. “In reality, we are looking at Diwali when things should pick up,” Gadgil said, referring to the festival of lights, which falls in November this year. Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2qqfrF7

-Bundesbank Pulls All Stops to Show Germans Their Gold Is Real. If Germans have any doubts about the authenticity of their gold and some of them really do their central bank is doing all it can to qualm their concerns. Germany’s Bundesbank this week launches a nearly six-month exhibition on gold, which will showcase the most interesting gold bars and coins in the central bank’s collection. That follows its release earlier this month of a book on “The Gold of the Germans”, which “for the first time shows readers the gold bars in such a way as if they were held in their own hands,” according to board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele.

The subject of the country’s reserves became particularly heated during the years of the sovereign debt crisis, when lawmakers and members of the public began to wonder why it had taken so long to repatriate the Bundesbank’s gold amassed during the post-war boom. Since then, the central bank has made an expedited effort to bring them back home, and it also made a short documentary on the subject. “I can assure you that the gold of the Germans is stored and administered under the highest standards,” Thiele said at the exhibition’s opening. “This will remain so in the future.” Read more here-https://bloom.bg/2v8IqCQ

-Origin of Mysterious 2,700-Year-Old Gold Treasure Revealed. New analysis unveils the origin of the storied Carambolo Treasure, and despite previous claims, it has nothing to do with Atlantis. New chemical analysis has solved the mystery regarding the origin of the Carambolo Treasure, a magnificent hoard of ancient gold objects discovered by Spanish construction workers near Seville in 1958. When the 2,700-year-old treasure was first found, it instantly sparked speculation and debate about Tartessos, a civilization that thrived in southern Spain between the ninth and sixth centuries B.C. Ancient sources described the Tartessians as a wealthy, advanced culture, ruled by a king.

That wealth, and the fact that the Tartessians seemingly ‘disappear‘ from history about 2,500 years ago, has led to theories equating Tartessos with the mythical site of Atlantis. Another side of the debate held that the jewelry came with the Phoenicians a Semitic, seafaring culture from the Near East which first arrived in the western Mediterranean in the eighth century B.C. and established a trading port at what is now modern-day Cádiz. “Some people think that the Carambolo Treasure comes from the East, from the Phoenicians,” says Ana Navarro, the director of the Archaeological Museum of Seville and one of the authors of a recent study of the treasure published in the Journal of Archaeological Science. “With this work, we know that the gold was taken from mines in Spain.” Read more here-http://bit.ly/2GPO7v0

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Investing In Fancy Colored Diamonds

Investing in rare colored diamonds is a long-term investment. The economic cycles of the past 15 years have seen colored diamonds reach new heights in value as price records were broken.

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The Investor Learning Center was created to provide investors with the tools to make the right decision when it comes to investing in Rare Colored Diamonds.
Access our archives of exciting documentary video, informational content, historical pricing, and much more.
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The GIA report for this diamond is not posted on the website at this time however it is available. Please fill out a form to inquire or call us directly at 800-456-3934 for more information.

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Pink

  • Year: 1980
  • Total Price: $50,000
  • Price per Carat: $50,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Pink

  • Year: 1990
  • Total Price: $150,000
  • Price per Carat: $150,000
  • Source: Auction

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Pink

  • Year: 2000
  • Total Price: $500,000
  • Price per Carat: $500,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Pink

  • Year: 2008
  • Total Price: $1,000,000
  • Price per Carat: $1,000,000
  • Source: Auction

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Pink

  • Year: 2009
  • Total Price: $1,090,500
  • Price per Carat: $1,090,500
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Pink

  • Year: 2020
  • Total Price: $2,828,187*
  • Price per Carat: $2,828,187*

*Estimated value based on current market trend

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Pink

  • Year: 2025
  • Total Price: $4,361,506*
  • Price per Carat: $4,361,506*

*Estimated value based on current market trend

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Intense Yellow

  • Year: 1980
  • Total Price: $1,000
  • Price per Carat: $1,000
  • Source: Auction

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Intense Yellow

  • Year: 1990
  • Total Price: $3,000
  • Price per Carat: $3,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Intense Yellow

  • Year: 2000
  • Total Price: $9,000
  • Price per Carat: $9,000
  • Source: Auction

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Intense Yellow

  • Year: 2008
  • Total Price: $23,500
  • Price per Carat: $23,500
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Intense Yellow

  • Year: 2009
  • Total Price: $26,300
  • Price per Carat: $26,300
  • Source: Auction

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Intense Yellow

  • Year: 2012
  • Total Price: $32,000
  • Price per Carat: $32,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Intense Yellow

  • Year: 2020
  • Total Price: $53,993*
  • Price per Carat: $53,993*

*Estimated value based on current market trend

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Intense Yellow

  • Year: 2025
  • Total Price: $74,873*
  • Price per Carat: $74,873*

*Estimated value based on current market trend

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Blue

  • Year: 1980
  • Total Price: $60,000
  • Price per Carat: $60,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Blue

  • Year: 1990
  • Total Price: $200,000
  • Price per Carat: $200,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Blue

  • Year: 2000
  • Total Price: $600,000
  • Price per Carat: $600,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Blue

  • Year: 2008
  • Total Price: $1,350,000
  • Price per Carat: $1,350,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Blue

  • Year: 2009
  • Total Price: $1,494,000
  • Price per Carat: $1,494,000
  • Source: Auction

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Blue

  • Year: 2020
  • Total Price: $4,555,497*
  • Price per Carat: $4,555,497*

*Estimated value based on current market trend

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Vivid Blue

  • Year: 2025
  • Total Price: $7,561,708*
  • Price per Carat: $7,561,708*

*Estimated value based on current market trend

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Red

  • Year: 1950
  • Total Price: $13,800
  • Price per Carat: $13,800
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Red

  • Year: 1987
  • Total Price: $927,000
  • Price per Carat: $927,000
  • Source: Auction

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Red

  • Year: 2008
  • Total Price: $2,000,000
  • Price per Carat: $2,000,000
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Red

  • Year: 2009
  • Total Price: $2,074,600
  • Price per Carat: $2,074,600
  • Source: Private Sale

1 Carat Radiant Cut Fancy Red

  • Year: 2020
  • Total Price: $3,103,720*
  • Price per Carat: $3,103,720*

*Estimated value based on current market trend