Radio Show Newsletter
WORLD FINANCIAL REPORT ON RADIO JANUARY 24th 2019
CHARTS OF THE WEEK-QUOTES-QUICK HITS
-CHART OF THE WEEK: From Reagan to Trump: Here’s how stocks performed under each president. President Donald Trump has repeatedly held up the stock market as one of his preferred scorecards of his administration’s policies. Sunday marks the two-year anniversary of Trump’s inauguration. The S&P 500 is up nearly 18% over that time frame. Going back to Ronald Reagan, that’s the second best performance in a president’s first two years in office. How the markets will stack up during the rest of his presidency remains to be seen. CNNMoney
-CHART OF THE WEEK: Now Chocolate Bars Are Shrinking Because of Brexit. Shrinking chocolate bars and loaves of bread are leaving U.K. consumers dealing with stealth price rises, according to the Office of National Statistics. Between September 2015 and June 2017, 206 products in the U.K. shrank in size and 79 increased, according to ONS research published Monday. Prices tended to remain unchanged as the sizes changed, “consistent with the idea that some products are undergoing “shrinkflation,” the ONS said. The idea of shrinkflation has been gaining traction in the U.K. as companies facing higher costs look for ways to avoid overt price hikes amid a squeeze on incomes.
One of the most prominent examples came following the Brexit vote in 2016, when the drop in the pound led Mondelez International Inc. to reduce the weight of some of its Toblerone chocolate bars, even expanding the gaps between the characteristic triangular segments. The bars subsequently reverted to their original shape amid an outcry from consumers. The ONS research confirmed that chocolate bars are a fertile ground for shrinkflation, with the category that includes the treat seeing 25 products shrinking against just five that grew. The category with the most size changes in the period was bread and cereal, with 36 reductions and 18 increases, the ONS said. Bloomberg
-Too Many Americans Will Never Be Able to Retire. Without more babies and immigrants, the country won’t be able to support its aging population. Traditionally, Americans could look forward to a comfortable retirement. After four decades in an office or a factory, sometime in their 60s they would lay down their burdens and enjoy a final couple of decades with time to relax, spend time with family and friends, and reflect on their life. But since the financial crisis, older Americans have been increasingly staying in the workplace. Some see this as a positive trend, because it adds to the economy. But others rightfully view it with trepidation, because there’s the distinct possibility that many of these elderly people just can’t afford to retire. Whether their nest eggs were wiped out in the housing crash, or they just didn’t save enough, or whether their kids don’t make enough money to support them, the decline of retirement seems like an ominous development. Bloomberg
-White House chief economist: We could see ‘zero’ growth in first quarter because of shutdown. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett says U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter could be zero due to the government shutdown. In recent decades, GDP growth in the first quarter has been notably weaker than growth in other quarters. The federal government shutdown is in its 33rd day, with little sign of relief for the roughly 800,000 federal workers going without pay. CNBC
-As if going without pay during the monthlong partial government shutdown isn’t enough, thousands of federal workers are dealing with another financial indignity: servicing debt on government-issued credit cards. They are receiving credit card bills for which they are personally responsible for work-related expenses they incurred before the shutdown, but can’t get reimbursed because their agencies are mostly closed and funds are frozen. “It’s just crazy what we’re having to put up with,” said Michael Gonzales, a regional vice president of the Professional Aviation Safety Specialists union. “Something has to be done here. It’s just bizarre.” JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of several companies issuing government credit cards, will shield employees from downgrades to their credit scores for late payments, said spokesman Thomas Kelly. Bloomberg
-A growing number of economists predict that the United States will experience a recession sometime later this year or in 2020. Investors are starting to worry about a downturn, too. About three quarters (73%) of investors expect a recession within the next two years, according to a survey of 260 professional money managers and analysts done late last year by Boston Consulting Group. In 2017, just over half (53%) thought a recession was coming. The current attitude has little to do with China trade, Brexit or the government shutdown in Washington.
Instead, investors are most nervous about market valuations and central bank policies. Nearly two-thirds 64% of the bearish investors said that current stock prices were making them worried and about half 48%said interest rate levels concerned them. It will be interesting to see if these worries begin to fade, though. The market has rebounded so far this year, but major stock indexes are still down about 10% from where they were trading in early October. So stocks aren’t as expensive as they were a few months ago. Hady Farag, associate director with Boston Consulting Group, said he thinks investors are probably a little less concerned about valuations now than they were when they initially took the survey. CNNMoney
-Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund, sees a ‘significant risk’ of a possible US recession in 2020. The billionaire investment titan warns there’s a “significant risk” of a possible economic recession in the United States in 2020. Dalio, co-CIO and co-chairman of Bridgewater Associates, says, “It’s going to be globally a slow up. It’s not just the United States.” But the billionaire investment titan also says a pause in Fed rate hikes makes it possible to “extend the equilibrium.” CNBC
-Jamie Dimon: US economy is like a ship that could hit a ‘slowdown or recession.’ JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expresses confidence in the U.S. economy but says dangers are ahead. Among the issues are Brexit, China and the government shutdown, which Dimon called on Washington officials to end. If politician get things right, the economy could grow at a consistent 3 percent rate, he says. CNBC
-For hedge funds, 2018 was a year to forget. Six in 10 of them lost money, the highest proportion since the financial crisis, as a spurt in volatility made it tougher to make profitable bets. About 40 percent of the funds tracked by Preqin lost more than 5 percent. Bloomberg
-Hedge fund manager Einhorn explains why he lost more than 30% last year: ‘Nothing went right.’ All-star hedge fund manager David Einhorn explains in a letter why his hedge fund lost more than a third of their value last year. Greenlight Capital, lost 11.4 percent in the fourth quarter, bringing its decline to 34.2 percent in 2018. He also decided to reopen his funds to new investments, a move not seen since 2014. CNBC
-Forget all the handwringing about ETFs, CLOs and Fed policy. Canada’s top pension manager says the huge shift of assets from public to private markets could trigger steeper selloffs and exacerbate a crisis. Mark Machin, chief executive officer of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, said he’s worried that a growing sum of money is locked up in assets or investment vehicles that can’t be sold easily or quickly. “If there’s a sudden dislocation in markets, a profound dislocation, people who need the money to pay pensions or to pay other obligations are going to have to sell the public stuff quite rapidly,” Machin, who oversees about C$370 billion ($278 billion), said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Davos, Switzerland. “People who have big chunks of private assets need to think very carefully about what they’re going to do when things dislocate.” Bloomberg
-Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said he is keeping a close eye on developments in the nation’s housing market, as well as global trade tensions and the impact of lower oil prices, as he gauges the timing of his next interest rate increase. In an interview with Bloomberg TV at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Poloz cited those three issues as key determinants of future policy, even as he reiterated his belief that borrowing costs are still likely to go higher. “It’s data dependent,” Poloz said. “It will depend on how the economy responds to the shocks we’ve described.” The comments are in line with recent indications from the central bank that there’s less urgency in its push toward higher interest rates as the economy grapples with slumping oil prices. After five interest rate increases since mid-2017, markets are now anticipating the central bank will have no more than one more rate increase lined up before pausing indefinitely. Bloomberg
-46% of Canadians $200 or less away from financial insolvency: poll. The number of Canadians who are $200 or less away from financial insolvency at month-end has jumped to 46 per cent, up from 40 per cent in the previous quarter, as interest rates rise according to a new poll. A survey conducted for insolvency firm MNP Ltd. in December also found that 31 per cent of Canadians say they don’t make enough to cover their bills and debt payments, up seven per cent from the September poll. The results released Monday also indicated that 51 per cent of respondents say they are feeling the pinch of interest rate increases, up from 45 per cent a quarter ago.
“Many have so little wiggle room that any increase in living costs or interest payments can tip them over the edge,” said MNP’s president Grant Bazian in a statement. “That’s what we are seeing happen right now.” As well, 45 per cent of those surveyed say they will need to go further into debt to pay their living and family expenses. Canadians’ finances have come under increased pressure after the Bank of Canada introduced five rate hikes since mid-2017, in response to the stronger economy. Central bank governor Stephen Poloz kept his benchmark interest rate unchanged earlier this month at 1.75 per cent, but has signalled that more rate increases will still be necessary “over time.” Read more here-http://bit.ly/2RXrr0B
-A $1,000 emergency would push many Americans into debt. Most people would be in a bind if they missed even one paycheck. Just 40 percent of Americans could pay an unexpected $1,000 expense, such as an emergency room visit or car repair, with their savings, according to a survey from Bankrate. Here are some ways to grow an emergency savings account. CNBC
-1 in 3 consumers fear they will max out a credit card. Over 1 in 3 people or 86 million Americans say they’re afraid they’ll max out their credit card when making a large purchase. Still, most Americans continue to take on ever-increasing amounts of credit card debt. CNBC
-Government debt tab hits $66 trillion, 80% of global GDP, Fitch says. Government debt hit $66 trillion through the end of 2018, or about 80 percent of global GDP, according to Fitch Ratings. An official at the agency said the high debt levels could hamper countries as financial conditions tighten. While developed market debt has stayed fairly stable since 2012, that hasn’t been the case in the U.S., which has seen its IOU surge by 44 percent. CNBC
-The super rich at Davos are scared of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s proposal to hike taxes on the wealthy. The 70 percent tax rate on earnings above $10 million proposed by freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has the elite financiers attending Davos worried. “By the time we get to the presidential election, this is going to gain more momentum,” says Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer for $265 billion Guggenheim Partners. “It’s not going to happen trust me,” says one billionaire. CNBC
-Billionaire Ray Dalio says tax changes like those proposed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will have ‘huge’ impact on economy. The “income and opportunity gap” will determine the winner of the next election, hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio says. “How tax rates are changed will have a huge effect on incentives and could have a huge effect on capital flows, and that will have big effects on markets and economies,” says Dalio. The manager of the world’s biggest hedge fund spoke in an exclusive interview from the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. CNBC
-The richest 1% own 50% of stocks held by American households. The stock market made its way into mainstream news in 2018 when it hit record highs and then subsequently tumbled 19% in a matter of weeks. Market volatility is unsettling to investors. But just who makes up the investor class? According to Goldman Sachs, stock ownership is extremely concentrated because of the growing wealth gap in the U.S., and thus the market’s performance affects households making up the wealthiest 1% of Americans much more significantly than the other 99%.
“The wealthiest 0.1% and 1% of households now own about 17% and 50% of total household equities respectively, up significantly from 13% and 39% in the late 80s,” Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs’s chief economist said in a note earlier this week.The chart breaks down the growing wealth gap via ownership of financial assets. It illustrates the sharp decline in stock ownership share among the middle to upper-middle class citizens over the past few decades, while the richest Americans’ exposure to the market skyrocketed. YahooFinance
-Corporate executives joined the International Monetary Fund in warning the global economy is slowing faster than expected, establishing a downbeat tone for this week’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. Hours after the IMF cut its forecasts for the world economy this year and next, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP released a survey showing 30 percent of business leaders expect the expansion to weaken, about six times the number of a year ago. “The world economy is growing more slowly than expected, and risks are rising,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told reporters in Davos, Switzerland, the home of the conference of policy makers, investors and executives which began Tuesday. Bloomberg
-The global elite descending on Davos are richer than ever. A decade after the financial crisis poured flat champagne on the World Economic Forum, gold-collar executives set to gather there this week have bounced back, and then some. David Rubenstein has doubled his fortune since 2009. Jamie Dimon has more than tripled his net worth. And Stephen Schwarzman has increased his wealth six-fold. It’s a remarkable showing given the economic and political tumult of the past decade, from Lehman Brothers to Brexit to Donald Trump. The fortunes of a dozen 2009 Davos attendees have soared by a combined $175 billion, even as median U.S. household wealth has stagnated, a Bloomberg analysis found. Bloomberg
-Ten years ago, the Davos conference asked the question: “What must industry do to prevent a broad social backlash?” The answer probably wasn’t “Double, triple, or sextuple the wealth of the most prominent conference attendees, while letting median household incomes stagnate back home.” Yet that’s what happened. Make no mistake: The backlash is coming. There has always been a whiff of hypocrisy at Davos, where elites expand their carbon footprint, eat $43 hot dogs and throw lavish parties in the name of making the world a better place. “Fat cats in the snow,” the regular attendee Bono once called it (and he should know). But given the rapid advances of populist politics, it’s remarkable that in 2019, those felines are looking better-fed than ever.
The past decade and a half have seen U.S. corporate profits outgrow employee compensation at an unprecedented pace, according to the St. Louis Fed.Those feel-good panel debates on topics like “Better Capitalism” are pretty laughable. The response from the Davos crowd has always been to talk, talk, and talk a bit more. But there’s an increasing impatience with capitalism’s inability to regulate itself. That might explain why quite a few handsomely paid “Davos Men” have experienced a rather brutal comeuppance of late. Bloomberg
-London home asking prices fell to their weakest level in 3 1/2-years in January as sellers spooked by Brexit held off putting their properties up for sale. Asking prices in the capital slipped 1.5 percent from December to 593,972 pounds ($765,000), the lowest level since August 2015, according to Rightmove. New listings in the first two weeks of the year were 10 percent lower than in 2018 as owners were deterred by the cost of moving and concern about the political backdrop, the property website said. After years of outsize gains in home values, London and its surrounding areas have so far borne the brunt of Brexit, with a lack of clarity over the future relationship with Europe causing both households and firms to hold off on investment decisions. Listing prices in the capital have declined from a peak of almost 650,000 pounds in May 2016, the month before Britons voted to leave the European Union. Bloomberg
-Citadel LLC founder Ken Griffin bought 3 Carlton Gardens, a 200-year-old home that overlooks London’s St. James’s Park about half a mile from Buckingham Palace. The billionaire hedge-fund manager paid about 95 million pounds ($122 million) for the property, a Citadel spokesman said. The historic Georgian-era home was redeveloped by property developer Mike Spink in a venture with Evans Randall Investors. The 20,000 square-foot (roughly 1,900 square-meter) house includes a gym, pool and underground extension.
An asking price of 145 million pounds was originally discussed but in the past two years the house was offered for 125 million pounds, according to the Financial Times, which reported the purchase earlier and later clarified the asking price. Griffin, who has a $8.8 billion fortune, is the richest person from Illinois to feature on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a ranking of the world’s 500 richest people. He already owns hundreds of millions of dollars worth of property in New York and Chicago, according to the index. Bloomberg
-Canadians bought C$54 million ($41 million) of marijuana from stores in the first full month after sales were legalized, some of the clearest evidence yet of the market’s potential. Statistics Canada’s figure for November released Wednesday follows an earlier estimate that sales were C$43 million in the first two weeks following legalization on Oct. 17. The Ottawa- based agency added cannabis to standard monthly reports on retail sales as part of wider effort to update the nation’s economic accounts. Bloomberg
-DJI has unearthed cases of fraud involving its own employees that may trigger losses of about 1 billion yuan ($150 million) for the world’s largest drone maker, marking one of the largest recent cases of graft among China’s technology giants. SZ DJI Technology Co., which discovered the corruption in an internal probe, said it’s fired multiple workers who inflated parts costs for personal gain, and contacted law enforcement. The drone maker is still looking into the situation, which is “extensive” and involves a major sum, it said in a statement. The company didn’t say how many employees were involved in the instances of graft. Bloomberg
–Patek Philippe, the closely held maker of $10,000-plus Calatrava watches, may be coming up for sale, according to analysts at Berenberg who cited industry talk. The 180-year-old Swiss watchmaker could fetch 7 billion to 9 billion euros ($8 billion to $10 billion), analysts led by Zuzanna Pusz wrote in a note. Patek Philippe has been owned by the Stern family for almost a century, and Thierry Stern became the company’s chairman in 2009. “It was interesting to hear in the corridors of the Geneva watch salon that a potential sale of the high-end watch brand Patek Philippe could be approaching soon,” the analysts wrote, noting that it could be just a rumor. Bloomberg
–James Dyson, the inventor of the bagless vacuum cleaner, is now the wealthiest person in Britain after his company bagged record profit in 2018. Earnings at Dyson Ltd. reached 1.1 billion pounds ($1.4 billion) for the year, up from 801 million pounds in 2017, boosted by demand for new hair products, the company said Tuesday in a call with reporters. The results added about $3 billion to his wealth, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a ranking of the world’s 500 richest people. Bloomberg
–Super Bowl tickets don’t come cheap. The average resale price for a Super Bowl 2019 ticket in Atlanta, Georgia, is about $5,320 as of January 22, according to resale site SeatGeek. Fans attending the Super Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium will enjoy the retractable roof, beautiful lounges, a bar the length of a football field, and stunning views of the city’s skyline. Businessinsider
-DoubleLine Capital LP Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach said in a tweet that he will be deleting his Twitter account “due to suspicious activity.” The billionaire bond-fund manager is known for his outspoken views, often using Twitter to express his opinions. In December, he described Deutsche Bank AG as a “sick puppy” and earlier this month he commented “Hmmm” after Netflix Inc., and incidentally his local breakfast place, raised prices for the first time in years. Bloomberg
-“People know that maybe we will have another two or three of those tenders before the mine closes.” Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques commenting on the 2018 Argyle Pink tender
-“What we’ve seen is the pink diamonds have been appreciating in the order of 10 to 15 per cent per annum.” David Fardon Perth-based Linneys
-“It’s an incredible rarity that’s becoming appreciated the world over and we do see bidding from all corners of the globe for these rare gems.” Josephine Johnson Argyle Pink Diamonds manager
-“The remaining reserves underpin the operation until 2020, with opportunities to increase reserve estimates and extend the operational life subject to technical and financial performance.” Rio Tinto 2017 annual report
-“Fancy-colour diamonds are so rare and beautiful they have become a serious investment opportunity.” Miri Chen, CEO of the Fancy Color Research Foundation (FCRF)
-“Jewelry is an investment you can wear for 30 years and then sell. What else can you do that with?” Chris Del Gatto jewelry expert
-“Diamonds are a portable, alternative store of savings and wealth that are being increasingly utilized for diversification. And in a new and uncertain world, where surprises will continue to catch us off-guard, portability should absolutely be understood as diversification. The ability to easily move savings and wealth is not a feature of precious metals, real estate or most collectibles, but it is for diamonds. They are arguably the densest and most portable form of savings and wealth in existence. Real estate is fixed, and $1 million worth of gold weighs about 10 kilos as much as a large car tire but a handful of collection-quality diamonds can be worth many millions and fit in a pocket.” Joseph Lipton, CEO of Secured Worldwide
-Crucial reasons you should consider investing in coloured diamonds in 2019. In the current global economy where market prices can suddenly dip or surge, and investments can either soar or go sour, it is best to find investment options that offer better stability and peace of mind. With such an investment, you can rest easy knowing your profit margin is safe regardless economic woes. One particular investment that offers more stability than most is the diamond market, especially the coloured diamond market. Coloured diamonds possess investment characteristics that other commodities or even other classes of diamonds can’t offer. And if you aren’t convinced, below are some of the reasons why you should consider trying your hand on the 100% legal coloured diamond trade;
Global recognition-Diamonds are recognised worldwide for their value, and fancy coloured diamonds are even more so. Everyone from entrepreneurs to royalty want coloured diamonds same as they’ve wanted them for years and you can cash in on this high and unwavering demand.
Portability-Because of their small size, you can transport diamonds at small cost and with ease to practically anywhere in the world. The low shipping fee equals maximised profits.
Long term growth-According to Rav Dhillion of Argyle Bonds, “investing in coloured diamonds can be far more profitable than investing in regular colourless diamonds.” The monetary value of coloured diamonds has witnessed a steady rise over the past three decades. This makes these little gems a great investment today whose value will likely only appreciate as the years pass.
Value retention-Unlike colourless diamonds, fancy coloured diamonds do not have a fixed price. This is because their market value is more often than not determined by the selling prices at auction houses. The value of coloured diamonds are also determined by the rarity of their colours and because the sources of naturally coloured diamonds are limited, their scarcity is only likely to drive their value further upwards.
Durability-Same as with all diamonds, coloured diamonds are exceedingly durable which means you don’t have to worry about them bruising, breaking, tarnishing, rusting, or expiring. This is an advantage very few commodities that are investment worthy can offer. Being one of the hardest elements available on earth, a single coloured diamond can withstand the harshest environmental situations and roughest treatment which means you need worry very little about the integrity of your stock during shipment.
Rarity-Coloured diamonds are even rarer than regular diamonds. They can only be sourced for in a handful of mines around the world and most of said mines are already running out. Certain diamond colours such as Fancy Intense Violet are exceedingly rare and its value is such that you can practically name your price for it.
Privacy-Because of their size and portability, you can safely store diamonds anywhere with no one being the wiser. They also require no reporting for tax purposes in most countries.
They are simply beautiful to behold-The beauty of a coloured diamond, especially certain shades, is indisputable. And because that beauty can literally last forever and is recognised worldwide, coloured diamonds are a highly beneficial investment option which can be marketed and traded in any country to a variety of individuals.
Conclusion-Fancy coloured diamonds will not be around forever which means the sooner you get in on the ground floor the more you can profit from the commodity. If you are extremely shrewd, you could acquire a load of coloured diamonds today and hoard them till their rarity is at its height. This would be a long-term investment tactic that could fetch you not just great wealth but also fame. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2FB0cDv
April Fools Day is coming. Prank your friends opening a never ending fake update screen on their computer. Sit back and watch their reaction.
Gold to silver ratio at 80 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $25.00
Gold to silver ratio at 70 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $28.57
Gold to silver ratio at 60 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $33.33
Gold to silver ratio at 50 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $40.00
Gold to silver ratio at 40 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $50.00
Gold to silver ratio at 30 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $66.67
Gold to silver ratio at 20 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $100.00
Gold to silver ratio at 15 to 1 with gold at $2,000 the silver price would be $133.33
-Billionaire Sam Zell Buys Gold for First Time in Bet on Tight Supply. Gold’s dimming supply prospects have caught the eye of one billionaire. “For the first time in my life, I bought gold because it is a good hedge,” Sam Zell, the founder of Equity Group Investments, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Supply is shrinking and that is going to have a positive impact on the price.” Spending on new mines began to dry up after prices of the metal tumbled from a record in 2011, clouding the outlook for production.
With gold still down by almost a third from its peak, the biggest miners are just looking at buying their competitors in a bid to bolster their output pipeline. Monster Gold-Mining Deals Pile Pressure on Those Left Behind. “The amount of capital being put into new gold mines is a most nonexistent,” Zell said. “All of the money is being used to buy up rivals.” The combined gold reserves still buried in mines an indicator of production prospects shrank by more than 40 percent in 2017, from its peak after companies cut spending on exploration and development of new projects, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data on big producers. Bloomberg
-Gold Bull McEwen Sticks With His $5,000 Call as Pot Stocks Peak. Gold mining veteran Rob McEwen is nothing if not optimistic. The founder of Goldcorp Inc. is sticking with his bold prediction that the precious metal will soar almost fourfold to $5,000 an ounce, bolstered by a weaker dollar and waning demand for trendy assets like pot stocks. “Once people get over buying cryptos and biotech and cannabis stocks they’re going to start looking at gold again,” the chief executive officer of McEwen Mining Inc. said in an interview Thursday in Toronto with Bloomberg Television. Asked about his price target, McEwen said: “I’ve always liked $2,000 and beyond that $5,000.”
McEwen has been wrong before. In 2017, he predicted a “tsunami” of liquidity seeking safe haven would push gold above $5,000 an ounce. In 2016, he predicted prices of $1,700 to $1,900 by the end of the year. The metal ended below $1,200 an ounce, and trades only slightly higher now at about $1,290. A loss of confidence in the dollar, a peak in the broader stock market and fears of inflation will feed the impending spike in gold prices, he said. “The gold bull market started in January of 2016,” he said. “People haven’t seen it yet but we’re about a third of the way through.” McEwen, 68, is a fixture in Canada’s tight-knit gold mining community. The founder of Goldcorp is a noted philanthropist, having donated tens of millions of dollars to healthcare, business education, and other causes. He also remains the country’s most famously unabashed gold bull. Bloomberg
-Michael J. Kosares: The Power of Gold Diversification. The study, constructed utilizing some unique software at the World Gold Council’s website, compares two hypothetical portfolios making a $100,000 investment one consisting of stocks, bonds and commodities diversified 20% with gold; the other consisting of stocks, bonds and commodities without the benefit of a gold diversification. We chose the year 2000 as a starting point in order to capture both bull and bear markets for the assets included. Today, “Portfolio 1” diversified with gold would be worth $258,996. “Portfolio 2” without the gold diversification would be worth $221,568. Please keep in mind that the current valuations are fixed at what many believe to be cyclical lows for gold and cyclical highs for stocks. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2RXCBCx
-James Dines: Gold’s Super Major Upwave III Will Have Its Day. “Gold investing is so entirely out of favor by investors worldwide that mainstream Security Analysts don’t even venture an opinion on them, which contrarily is bullish. They were too busy buying high-tech giants, just before they declined. We are not deterred by Mass Psychology because such pessimism starts to occur near the start of bull markets, according to the Dines Theory of Positive Negativism.
“For patient investors wishing to drink upstream from the herd, gold won’t double overnight, but there’s no bull markets as profitable as a monster gold bull market, and Super Major Upwave III will have its day. Without a link to gold, or anything else of value, such as barrels of oil for example, there is no keel, or ropes tied to a dock keeping boats from banging into each other, and currency crashes will be a natural result, to worsen in coming years. Especially if Mass Fear kicks in amidst national economic failures and there is a sudden rush out of paper money. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2S0qzIA
-Gold is entering a ‘golden cross’ and one technician sees an even bigger bounce ahead. Over the last few months, all that glitters has been gold. On Friday, gold went negative on the week, its first down week in five. However, the precious metal is up 10 percent since hitting 52-week low in August, and the chart is now flashing a secret buy sign: The “golden cross.” The term refers to what happens when the 50-day moving average crosses above its 200-day moving average.
Investors have typically view this as a bullish signal that points to more upside and Cornerstone Macro technician Carter Worth believes the gold bulls might just be right. Worth points out that a “wedge” has formed in the chart of gold over the past few years, and that’s got the technician looking for an bounce ahead for the metal. “The point is that there is a lot of tension and typically this setup is resolved in a dynamic way,” he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now,” adding that “our bet is it’s going to be resolved up.” Read more here-https://cnb.cx/2RGoPEU
-Russia has overtaken China to become the world’s fifth largest official sector holder of gold as Western sanctions drove buying by its central bank to record highs in 2018, its data showed on Friday. With support from President Vladimir Putin, the central bank has been betting heavily on bullion, often seen as a safe haven or a natural hedge against the dollar, with active purchases in the last 10 years. In 2018, Russia’s buying jumped further as holdings of U.S. Treasury securities were reduced after Washington imposed sanctions on Russian entities in April, the toughest since Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. The central bank bought 8.8 million troy ounces last year, it said on Friday, beating a record 7.2 million ounces set in 2017. Read more here-https://reut.rs/2S4HmKg
-Lawrie Williams: Gold consolidates poised to attack $1,300 again. Despite seeming efforts by the powers that be to keep the price under control, gold keeps bouncing back up into the $1,290-$1,300 range. It cannot be long before the latter level is breached, and breached comprehensively. The force seems to be with gold yet again and this time it hopefully will not be found wanting. At the moment the dollar gold price appears to be dependent on the strength or otherwise of the mighty dollar itself. Recently the dollar has been showing occasional signs of weakness compared with a couple of months ago, but attempts to keep it from falling excessively have so far been successful but one suspects gravity will prevail as U.S. data indicators seem to be turning negative.
U.S. equities are volatile after a series of upwards corrections following the heavy falls in December and early January but there does seem to be considerable intra-day down and up movement in the key North American markets, while Asian and European bourses remain significantly nervous suggesting all is not well with the global economy. Bitcoin has taken another leg down again after a small recovery. Bitcoin is a pure speculation and the momentum for speculators has turned negative. We thus expect it to fall further all things being equal. Be especially wary of some of the mini-cryptocurrencies like Ethereum.
This has seen a bit of a rally but if its big brother continues weak it could come down with bang perhaps to under the $100 level and even back to near zero again. So where does this leave gold? As noted above it seems to have been consolidating in the high $1,280s and low $1,290s poised to hit $1,300 and go higher in the near future we think. But for much of the rest of the world, earlier dollar strength has meant the gold price has actually already been doing rather well. As my colleague Ross Norman points out in another article published here a couple of days ago Gold hits an all time high in 72 currencies.
“Popular belief has it that gold prices have not performed especially well despite some egregious geopolitical and economic factors. Well measured in 72 currencies, gold is at or within a few percentage points of being at an all time high for people in those countries. Not on the list are the British Pound, the Swiss Franc, the Euro and Chinese Yuan but we are not far off in all of those currencies too. Only in USD does gold lag and not all of us live in the US. Using the dollar gold price, as most of us do, has disguised what is actually quite a powerful bull market. If my memory serves me right, we saw the same phenomenon a stealth rally in minor currencies ahead of the last major gold bull run (in dollars) in the late 1990’s. Arguably this may be a very good leading indicator.” Read more here-http://bit.ly/2HrnhtR
-Silver Is the Outcast Among Precious-Metals Outcast to Start 2019. Silver just completed its worst year in three. Investors are showing no signs of taking a shine to the metal in 2019, either. The commodity has erased its 2019 gain, while gold, platinum and palladium hold onto theirs. Silver futures on Friday posted the biggest weekly loss since November. Analysts say silver is getting hit from at least two sides as investors are turned off by its status as both a haven and industrial commodity. Optimism over trade talks is boosting equities and curbing demand for shelters from market turmoil.
At the same time, caution over the broader economic outlook dims industrial-demand prospects at a time when silver is plentiful. Silver has an industrial component, and industrial metals have been “weighed down by slowing global growth concerns,” said Daniel Ghali, a TD Securities commodities strategist. For today, you would expect a “boost to prices because of increasing hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal. But there’s still loads of inventory weighing on the metal’s price.” “There’s absolutely no shortage of silver around,” Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone. “People bought silver on the back of gold rather than on solid fundamentals. As soon as gold retreats the desire to hold silver fades quickly.” Bloomberg
-India’s Silver imports saw a sharp uptick in 2018. Analysts said that import is estimated to have gone up between 30-35 per cent. Import has seen a jump following higher consumer demand. Even import bill for silver has jumped almost 30 per cent to $3.934 billion. Average international silver price in 2018 was down by 8 per cent to $15.7 per ounce. Traders and importers estimate the increase in import around 20-25 per cent. However, import bill in last quarter of 2018 has doubled to $1.2 bn from October quarter.
Which means in last quarter huge quantities are understood to have entered India. There was huge shortage of silver and some importers are understood to have booked chartered flights to import higher quantities, sources had said ahead of Diwali. According to Debajit Saha, Senior Analyst – Precious Metals Demand, GFMS Thomson Reuters, said, “We estimate Silver bullion imports into India have increased quite sharply this year by 35.2 per cent to around 6942 tonnes, compared to 5133 tonnes in 2017”. A leading importer, however, estimated import growth around 20 per cent. Read more here-http://bit.ly/2R6wHu1